A trillion-dollar digital economy at risk: The South China Sea's hidden threat to Asean's online future.
In the bustling digital landscape of Southeast Asia, a critical yet often overlooked vulnerability lurks beneath the waves. As the region's online boom relies heavily on undersea cables, analysts sound the alarm on potential disruptions that could cripple public services, military operations, and financial systems.
The Cable Conundrum: A Complex Web of Risks
Asha Hemrajani, an expert from Singapore's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, highlights the region's heavy dependence on these cables, which carry over 99% of intercontinental data traffic. However, their vulnerability to accidental damage, deliberate sabotage, natural disasters, and climate change poses a significant threat.
The South China Sea: A Disputed Route
Most of Asean's subsea infrastructure is concentrated in the South China Sea, the fastest and most cost-effective route to connect Southeast Asia with the Americas. But the region's geopolitical tensions and the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling under UNCLOS have complicated matters. China's continued imposition of permit requirements on cable routes and repairs has delayed non-Chinese projects and deterred investors.
Bureaucracy, Politics, and Strategic Competition
Asha points out that bureaucratic and political constraints, coupled with the shift of major US and allied cable investments away from Hong Kong and the South China Sea, have elevated strategic competition and regulatory barriers as major drivers of risk to subsea cables in the region.
A Complex Governance Challenge
Farlina Said from Malaysia's Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) adds another layer of complexity. Subsea cables straddle multiple jurisdictions, making governance and crisis response a daunting task. They present both cybersecurity and maritime security challenges, with potential issues ranging from encryption and red teaming to physical protection and repair rights.
The Need for Regional Coordination
Both analysts emphasize the urgent need for stronger regional coordination and the implementation of existing frameworks to safeguard critical infrastructure. Asha proposes the development of a "multi-stakeholder strategy" to enhance the 2019 Asean Guidelines for Strengthening Resilience and Repair of Submarine Cables, as well as exploring defense-level cooperation for cable surveillance. She also highlights the importance of building more cables, such as the proposed Asean-wide cable, to enhance capacity and diversity.
Farlina calls for closer collaboration between regulatory agencies across sectors, acknowledging the challenges in subsea cables security that require deeper conversations on the maritime-cybersecurity nexus.
A Call to Action at the 47th Asean Summit
As the 47th Asean Summit and Related Meetings approach in Kuala Lumpur, under Malaysia's chairmanship, regional security, digital infrastructure resilience, and economic cooperation are expected to take center stage. The question remains: Will Asean leaders prioritize the protection of their digital economy, or will the region's online future remain vulnerable to the hidden threats beneath the waves?
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